Thunderstorms and extreme rainfall will be six times more frequent in the Mississippi Delta, according to climate scientists. These massive downpours, which flooded Louisiana, Houston, and West Virginia earlier this year, is reportedly three times more likely to occur in the United States within the century.
Since warmer air can retain more moisture, excessive greenhouse gas emissions created by human activities can ultimately lead to extreme rainfall and disastrous flooding. In this new study by the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, scientists suggest that increasing amounts of rainfall have started. They developed new models to predict where these massive amounts of rain will fall and the extent of potential damage from flooding.
These new models consist of high-resolution simulations with 25 times more improvement and accuracy than current models. These models projected a fivefold increase in downpours in regions such as the Atlantic, Gulf Coasts, and the Southwest.
According to the lead author of the study, Andreas Prein from the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, by the year 2100, the United States will have a 180 percent increase in massive downpours. The Midwest and some parts of the West Coast are the least expected to experience this rainfall increase.
Researchers say that previous projections have not been as detailed since small-scale weather events such as thunderstorms were not taken into account. However, in this new study, new computer models and simulations include data from small-scale weather events, since thunderstorms are in the top half of the one percent of what causes of intense rainfall.
Prein added that it is more likely that there will be very powerful thunderstorms and stronger downpours in Earth's future climate, which means that there is a higher potential for flash floods.
This new study was published in the journal Nature Climate Change.