In a new study, researchers say that those who are living in southwestern United States will experience megadroughts that can last for decades by the end of this century.
New findings by scientists from Cornell University shows that there are chances of a megadrought occurring in the region by 2100. A megadrought involves an extremely dry period that can last for more than 35 years.
According to the lead author of the study, atmospheric researcher Toby Ault from Cornell, if humans continue to produce greenhouses gasses at the current rate, there is a 70 to 99 percent chance that the megadrought would extend to other western US states from San Francisco to Colorado and the Gulf of California.
Researchers say that megadroughts are created by the same environmental factors that cause normal droughts in the western US states. However, megadrought can last for decades and can cause disasters.
Climate scientists agree that climate change will begin to push storms from the southwest to the US northern states. This can significantly decrease the amount of total rainfall in the region.
Researchers created computer models with A range of rainfall projection data. For example, if the amount of rainfall remains the same today, chances of a southwestern megadrought by 2100 is 90 percent. However, if we become more aggressive in our efforts to curb climate change now, this risk will be dropped by around half.
Ault explains that megadroughts have occurred before during the planet's climate history. Climate scientists know this by studying tree rings and various geological records about multiple megadroughts that have already happened in the last 1,000 years. The most recent one that occurred in the southwest US was during the late 16th century specifically around Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. It led to the fall of the Puebloan civilization.
This new study has been published in the journal Science Advances.