More than Half of California Beaches will Disappear by 2100

By Ana Verayo, | March 28, 2017

Bedrock exposed at low tide along the beach at Isla Vista, California

Bedrock exposed at low tide along the beach at Isla Vista, California

Scientists predict in a new study that more than half of the beaches along Southern California will apparently disappear by the year 2100. Researchers say that the beaches will completely erode and return to coastal formations or sea cliffs due to rising sea levels.

A team of scientists and researchers from the United States Geological Survey has developed a new computer model in order to predict shoreline effects that are shaped by rising sea levels along with erratic storm patterns due to climate change. Their results revealed that around 31 to 67 percent of beaches will disappear in the next 80 years or so as global sea levels rise to 3.3 feet to 6.5 feet.

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According to lead author of the study, Sean Vitousek of the USGS and the Department of Civil and Materials Engineering of the University of Illinois, immediate and massive human efforts and intervention will be required to preserve Southern California's beaches. Vitousek explains, beaches are the most iconic features of California and when beaches disappear, it may also mean losing this identity is potentially real.

 

Apart from the tourism economy being affected, losing beaches can result in surf exposure that can destroy infrastructure, businesses and even homes. More specifically, this new computer model revealed how sand is transported in many directions to the beaches including the historical positions of shorelines.

This model called the "CoSMoS-COAST" (Coastal Storm Modeling System - Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool) also presented significant changes shaped by ocean waves and cycles that are controlled by rapid ocean warming called El Nino. Researchers say that this model's accuracy is based on data from simulating shoreline changes that occurred between 1995 to 2010.

According to co-author of the study, USGS geologist Patrick Barnard, this means that there will be massive and costly interventions required to save the California beaches. This is also crucial to the Southern California economy since beaches serve as a natural defense against storm surge impacts.

This new study is published in the American Geophysical Union's Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface.

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